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Arbor Resources Blog Updates

​Chinese imports of softwood and hardwood wood products will be
significantly altered in 2022 if Russia’s log export ban is implemented
China is the world’s largest importer of softwood and hardwood logs, and for many decades,
Russia has been a significant log supplier for them. This relationship may change in 2022
if Russia implements their proposed ban on exports of softwood logs and valuable
hardwood logs, while also introducing export taxes on green lumber. All these policy
changes are designed to encourage increased domestic production of higher-valued forest
products.
The Russian parliament has not yet announced the final legislative proclamation, so it is
not clear if there will be a complete or phased-in ban, a significant export tax, or even the
possibility of a state-owned export monopoly. However, a signal has been sent to the
marketplace that Russia will no longer be a major supplier of softwood and hardwood logs.
One consequence of this decision is that Chinese wood manufacturers will need to explore
new long-term log supply regions.
In 2020, China imported almost 6.5 million m3 of logs from Russia, predominantly
softwood species. The trade was substantially less than in any year during the past two
decades. Nevertheless, Russia was still the largest supplier of hardwood logs to China in
2020 (more prominent than any other source of temperate or tropical logs) and the thirdlargest
supplier of softwood logs.
It is crucial to keep in mind that China has shifted from sourcing logs from Russia to
European suppliers the past few years as insect-infested timber in Central Europe has been
in temporary abundance. From 2018 to 2020, softwood log imports from Europe increased
from 1.3 million m3 to 12.3 million m3, while Russian-supplied logs fell from 7.8 million
m3 to 4.2 million m3. However, shipments from Europe are not sustainable long-term.
According to the just-released study by the consulting firms Wood Resources International
and O’Kelly Acumen (Russian Log Export Ban in 2022 - Implications for the Global
Forest Industry), China is expected to source more sawlogs from Oceania, Europe, and the
US short-term. Longer-term, the study anticipates that China is likely to shift further from
WRI Market Insights 2021
- a subscription service from Wood Resources International
Global Sawlog Markets
Wood Resources
International
importing logs to lumber, thus creating opportunities for lumber manufacturers, mainly in
Europe and Russia, to increase shipments to this growing market.
The excerpt above is from the just-released Focus Report “Russia Log Export Ban in 2022 –
Implications to the Global Forest Industry”, published by Wood Resources International LLC
and O’Kelly Acumen. For more information about the study or to inquire about purchasing the
60-page report in easy-to-read slide format, please contact either Hakan Ekstrom
(hakan@woodprices.com) or Glen O’Kelly (glen.okelly@okelly.se). A Table of Contents of the
report is available on our website. Click here!
Contact Information
Wood Resources International LLC
Hakan Ekstrom, Seattle, USA
info@WoodPrices.com

Logs up, lumber down makes NZ plan for Chinese market transparent

26/1/2017

1 Comment

 
Picture
​The latest figures in from Wood Markets shows the New Zealand forestry industry’s market tactics still involve spurning aftermarket opportunities in favour of the quick flick.
 
Chinese wood products production and demand increased in 2016, fuelling log and lumber import gains from Russia, but also from the USA, New Zealand (logs), Australia (logs), Canada (logs) and Europe (lumber).

Final year-end statistics for 2016 show that China's imports of logs and lumber have rebounded strongly from the slowdown in 2015. Softwood lumber imports soared to new heights and recorded the highest import volumes ever.

China imported 48.7 million m³ of logs in 2016, an increase of 9% from 2015. Of the total log imports, softwood log imports were 33.7 million m³ (+13% as compared to 2015), while the hardwoods were 15.1 million m³ (+2%). China imported 31.6 million m³ of lumber in 2016, up 19% over 2015. Of the total lumber imports, softwood lumber imports were 21.1 million m³ (+21% as compared to 2015), while the hardwoods were 10.6 million m³ (+15%).

These and other year-end statistics and analysis will be featured in the February issue of Wood Markets' monthly China Bulletin that will be released after Chinese New Year in February.
With steady to increasing demand in 2016 and with well-balanced inventories, both softwood log imports and prices (in US$/ m³) increased throughout the year. New Zealand softwood log exports continue to dominate exporters to China and increased by 12% in 2016 at 11.6 million m³. This was followed by Russia (9.2 million m³), USA (4.5 million m³), Australia (3.3 million m³) and Canada (2.8 million m³). The 2016 softwood log import volumes have only been exceeded by the record volume in 2014 of 35.5 million m³.

China's softwood lumber imports ramped up dramatically in 2016 to reach an all-time high. This was fuelled by growing market demand for lumber for use in the furniture, door, window and finishing segments and, to a lesser degree, in construction end uses. With rising property values in Tier 1 cities, softwood lumber prices also picked up throughout the year.
Russian softwood lumber imports took off in 2016 from new capacity expansions and installations that were stimulated by high margins from the weak ruble. As well, "squared" logs and cants imports (classified as lumber so that no log export tax is paid) continued to increase. 
 
Russian softwood lumber imports soared by 38% (where Wood Market has adjusted this volume lower from the official statistics to account for a large error) and totalled 11.6 million m³. This was followed by Canada (5.2 million m³; -6%), Finland (0.95 million m³; +55%); Chile (0.75 million m³; +10%); Sweden (0.69 million m³; +34%); and the USA (0.64 million m³; +8%). Scandinavian exports surged as demand was very strong in the furniture, door and decoration segment. Of the top 10 exporters to China, only Canada (-6%), New Zealand (-18%), and Germany (-6%) recorded decreases in softwood lumber exports to China in 2016.
​
Further details and analysis on the market highlights in 2016 and trends for 2017 will be provided in the February issue of the China Bulletin.  The China Bulletin has been published monthly since 2007 by WOOD MARKETS and provides analysis, import/export statistics and prices on logs, lumber, panels and other products.

1 Comment
Logan link
30/12/2020 10:01:06

This was a lovely bblog post

Reply



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    Author
    ​FRANK T DAVIS 

    A SURLY AND CYNICAL OLD CURMUDGEON WITH A JAUNDICED VIEW OF THE POLITICAL ELITE .

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