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Arbor Resources Blog Updates

​Chinese imports of softwood and hardwood wood products will be
significantly altered in 2022 if Russia’s log export ban is implemented
China is the world’s largest importer of softwood and hardwood logs, and for many decades,
Russia has been a significant log supplier for them. This relationship may change in 2022
if Russia implements their proposed ban on exports of softwood logs and valuable
hardwood logs, while also introducing export taxes on green lumber. All these policy
changes are designed to encourage increased domestic production of higher-valued forest
products.
The Russian parliament has not yet announced the final legislative proclamation, so it is
not clear if there will be a complete or phased-in ban, a significant export tax, or even the
possibility of a state-owned export monopoly. However, a signal has been sent to the
marketplace that Russia will no longer be a major supplier of softwood and hardwood logs.
One consequence of this decision is that Chinese wood manufacturers will need to explore
new long-term log supply regions.
In 2020, China imported almost 6.5 million m3 of logs from Russia, predominantly
softwood species. The trade was substantially less than in any year during the past two
decades. Nevertheless, Russia was still the largest supplier of hardwood logs to China in
2020 (more prominent than any other source of temperate or tropical logs) and the thirdlargest
supplier of softwood logs.
It is crucial to keep in mind that China has shifted from sourcing logs from Russia to
European suppliers the past few years as insect-infested timber in Central Europe has been
in temporary abundance. From 2018 to 2020, softwood log imports from Europe increased
from 1.3 million m3 to 12.3 million m3, while Russian-supplied logs fell from 7.8 million
m3 to 4.2 million m3. However, shipments from Europe are not sustainable long-term.
According to the just-released study by the consulting firms Wood Resources International
and O’Kelly Acumen (Russian Log Export Ban in 2022 - Implications for the Global
Forest Industry), China is expected to source more sawlogs from Oceania, Europe, and the
US short-term. Longer-term, the study anticipates that China is likely to shift further from
WRI Market Insights 2021
- a subscription service from Wood Resources International
Global Sawlog Markets
Wood Resources
International
importing logs to lumber, thus creating opportunities for lumber manufacturers, mainly in
Europe and Russia, to increase shipments to this growing market.
The excerpt above is from the just-released Focus Report “Russia Log Export Ban in 2022 –
Implications to the Global Forest Industry”, published by Wood Resources International LLC
and O’Kelly Acumen. For more information about the study or to inquire about purchasing the
60-page report in easy-to-read slide format, please contact either Hakan Ekstrom
(hakan@woodprices.com) or Glen O’Kelly (glen.okelly@okelly.se). A Table of Contents of the
report is available on our website. Click here!
Contact Information
Wood Resources International LLC
Hakan Ekstrom, Seattle, USA
info@WoodPrices.com

India a market to watch

26/7/2018

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Huge growth potential and softwood opportunities – Softwood is gaining market share over hardwood in the Indian market, assisted in part by limited volumes of renewable or certified hardwood fibre. A variety of initiatives are pointing to huge future increases in Indian wood products demand, with the country poised to become the third- largest economy in the world by 2030. 

India is a difficult market to access for most major log/lumber export-ing countries. New Zealand is its most dominant softwood country supplier, accounting for 70% of total softwood log and lumber imports; Malaysia is the country’s largest hardwood supplier. Rapidly depleting global hardwood supply and huge consumption growth anticipated in India mean that the demand for imported softwood will only expand. One forecast is for massive softwood expansion: from approximately 2.5 million m3 in 2017 to over 65 million m3 by 2027.

​
The Indian log market has reached China price parity with ‘A’ longs now selling for USD 159-160/JASm3. While volumes delivered to this market are 14% down year on year to May 2018, it has been a steady market and exporters still expect an increase in demand in Q4. 

There is an increased schedule of ship arrivals from NZ over the next six weeks, so this will be a good test of this market. Containers of logs are also arriving from Germany, South Africa and southern yellow pine from the USA. 

The labour shortage mentioned in previous Wood Matters continues, but some labour has returned to the mills from agricultural work. Log stocks are about 120,000m3 in Kandla and 30,000m3 in Tuticorin. The cash flow of log buyers is still tight after the introduction of GST and the increased scrutiny on bank lending compounding the weakening of the Indian Rupee against the US dollar. 
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    Author
    ​FRANK T DAVIS 

    A SURLY AND CYNICAL OLD CURMUDGEON WITH A JAUNDICED VIEW OF THE POLITICAL ELITE .

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