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Arbor Resources Blog Updates

​Chinese imports of softwood and hardwood wood products will be
significantly altered in 2022 if Russia’s log export ban is implemented
China is the world’s largest importer of softwood and hardwood logs, and for many decades,
Russia has been a significant log supplier for them. This relationship may change in 2022
if Russia implements their proposed ban on exports of softwood logs and valuable
hardwood logs, while also introducing export taxes on green lumber. All these policy
changes are designed to encourage increased domestic production of higher-valued forest
products.
The Russian parliament has not yet announced the final legislative proclamation, so it is
not clear if there will be a complete or phased-in ban, a significant export tax, or even the
possibility of a state-owned export monopoly. However, a signal has been sent to the
marketplace that Russia will no longer be a major supplier of softwood and hardwood logs.
One consequence of this decision is that Chinese wood manufacturers will need to explore
new long-term log supply regions.
In 2020, China imported almost 6.5 million m3 of logs from Russia, predominantly
softwood species. The trade was substantially less than in any year during the past two
decades. Nevertheless, Russia was still the largest supplier of hardwood logs to China in
2020 (more prominent than any other source of temperate or tropical logs) and the thirdlargest
supplier of softwood logs.
It is crucial to keep in mind that China has shifted from sourcing logs from Russia to
European suppliers the past few years as insect-infested timber in Central Europe has been
in temporary abundance. From 2018 to 2020, softwood log imports from Europe increased
from 1.3 million m3 to 12.3 million m3, while Russian-supplied logs fell from 7.8 million
m3 to 4.2 million m3. However, shipments from Europe are not sustainable long-term.
According to the just-released study by the consulting firms Wood Resources International
and O’Kelly Acumen (Russian Log Export Ban in 2022 - Implications for the Global
Forest Industry), China is expected to source more sawlogs from Oceania, Europe, and the
US short-term. Longer-term, the study anticipates that China is likely to shift further from
WRI Market Insights 2021
- a subscription service from Wood Resources International
Global Sawlog Markets
Wood Resources
International
importing logs to lumber, thus creating opportunities for lumber manufacturers, mainly in
Europe and Russia, to increase shipments to this growing market.
The excerpt above is from the just-released Focus Report “Russia Log Export Ban in 2022 –
Implications to the Global Forest Industry”, published by Wood Resources International LLC
and O’Kelly Acumen. For more information about the study or to inquire about purchasing the
60-page report in easy-to-read slide format, please contact either Hakan Ekstrom
(hakan@woodprices.com) or Glen O’Kelly (glen.okelly@okelly.se). A Table of Contents of the
report is available on our website. Click here!
Contact Information
Wood Resources International LLC
Hakan Ekstrom, Seattle, USA
info@WoodPrices.com

China's softwood lumber imports hit new record in 2016

1/3/2017

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​China's softwood lumber imports hit a new record of 21.58 million cubic meters in 2016, up 24 percent from a year earlier, a strong rebound after a 1% decline in total imports in 2015 and a 4% increase in total imports in 2014.

The volumes rose by 20% during the Q1/2016 and reached 10.8 million cubic meters of softwood material. The value of the products also went up, by 24%, as compared to the same period of 2015.
Russia exported 12.1 million cubic meters of softwood lumber to China in 2016, surging 44% over the same period last year, becoming China's main supplier of softwood lumber.

Last year, new capacity came on-line to boost its export volumes at the Chinese border, resulting in the export of softwood lumber over logs, while the rugged weakness of the ruble for Russian producers brought higher profits in China.

Russian log exports were affected by tariffs, while softwood weren't. Last year, Europe's market share in China continued to expand, with total exports jumping 43% to 14.2 million cubic meters, accounting for 66% of China's total imports, up 57% year-on-year. Among them, the Scandinavian shipments increased significantly, Austria's shipments doubled, Germany slightly faded and other areas remained relatively stable.

In 2016, North America exported 5.86 million cubic meters of softwood lumber to China, down 5% year-on-year; Canada's exports amounted to 5.22 million cubic meters, down 6% year-on-year.
Although exports in the northern United States increased by 8%, China's market share has been shrinking. Canadian manufacturers are highly concerned about the US last year's softwood lumber market due to tax-free market benefits.

This year, the United States softwood lumber countervailing duty and anti-dumping duties levy on Canada can make China and the domestic market a more and more intense competitor. Last year, the United States exported a large number of low-grade southern pine; South America exported 1.1 million cubic meters of pine, up 23% over the same period last year, of which Chile's exports increased by 10%, accounting for 70% of South American total output, while Brazil's exports doubled.

Last year, China imported 33.7 million cubic meters of softwood logs, up 13% from a year earlier. Among them, imports from New Zealand rose up to 11.6 million cubic meters, a 12% increase, while continued to maintain the largest export status of logs; the United States exports 7.2 million cubic meters, an increase of 23%; European exports of 10.8 million cubic meters, up 4%. Most of the logs exported to China are from Russia, while Ukraine is the most common supplier outside Russia.
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    Author
    ​FRANK T DAVIS 

    A SURLY AND CYNICAL OLD CURMUDGEON WITH A JAUNDICED VIEW OF THE POLITICAL ELITE .

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