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Arbor Resources Blog Updates

​Chinese imports of softwood and hardwood wood products will be
significantly altered in 2022 if Russia’s log export ban is implemented
China is the world’s largest importer of softwood and hardwood logs, and for many decades,
Russia has been a significant log supplier for them. This relationship may change in 2022
if Russia implements their proposed ban on exports of softwood logs and valuable
hardwood logs, while also introducing export taxes on green lumber. All these policy
changes are designed to encourage increased domestic production of higher-valued forest
products.
The Russian parliament has not yet announced the final legislative proclamation, so it is
not clear if there will be a complete or phased-in ban, a significant export tax, or even the
possibility of a state-owned export monopoly. However, a signal has been sent to the
marketplace that Russia will no longer be a major supplier of softwood and hardwood logs.
One consequence of this decision is that Chinese wood manufacturers will need to explore
new long-term log supply regions.
In 2020, China imported almost 6.5 million m3 of logs from Russia, predominantly
softwood species. The trade was substantially less than in any year during the past two
decades. Nevertheless, Russia was still the largest supplier of hardwood logs to China in
2020 (more prominent than any other source of temperate or tropical logs) and the thirdlargest
supplier of softwood logs.
It is crucial to keep in mind that China has shifted from sourcing logs from Russia to
European suppliers the past few years as insect-infested timber in Central Europe has been
in temporary abundance. From 2018 to 2020, softwood log imports from Europe increased
from 1.3 million m3 to 12.3 million m3, while Russian-supplied logs fell from 7.8 million
m3 to 4.2 million m3. However, shipments from Europe are not sustainable long-term.
According to the just-released study by the consulting firms Wood Resources International
and O’Kelly Acumen (Russian Log Export Ban in 2022 - Implications for the Global
Forest Industry), China is expected to source more sawlogs from Oceania, Europe, and the
US short-term. Longer-term, the study anticipates that China is likely to shift further from
WRI Market Insights 2021
- a subscription service from Wood Resources International
Global Sawlog Markets
Wood Resources
International
importing logs to lumber, thus creating opportunities for lumber manufacturers, mainly in
Europe and Russia, to increase shipments to this growing market.
The excerpt above is from the just-released Focus Report “Russia Log Export Ban in 2022 –
Implications to the Global Forest Industry”, published by Wood Resources International LLC
and O’Kelly Acumen. For more information about the study or to inquire about purchasing the
60-page report in easy-to-read slide format, please contact either Hakan Ekstrom
(hakan@woodprices.com) or Glen O’Kelly (glen.okelly@okelly.se). A Table of Contents of the
report is available on our website. Click here!
Contact Information
Wood Resources International LLC
Hakan Ekstrom, Seattle, USA
info@WoodPrices.com

Chinese log imports reach another high

18/4/2019

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China is continuously exploring new sources of softwood logs around the world. Minor log exporters, such as Japan, Poland, Chile and South Africa all expanded their shipments to China in 2018, reports the WRQ. Of the major log supplying countries, only Russia and Canada reduced their exports to China, while New Zealand, the US and Uruguay all increased their shipments year-over-year. Log imports to China reached another record high in 2018, with New Zealand supplying 44% of the volume, reports the WRQ. 

China had another record year of softwood log imports in 2018, when over 40 million m3 of logs landed at Chinese ports. This was the third consecutive year of year-over-year- increases, with 2018 volumes being up 37% from 2015. Although import volumes fell slightly from the 3Q/18 to the 4Q/18, the December numbers were the second highest monthly imports on record. 

Over the past five years, import volumes have declined from the key supplying regions of Russia and Canada, while they have increased from New Zealand and Australia. New Zealand continues to expand its market share, supplying 44% of the total import volume in the 4Q/18, up from 30% just three years earlier, according to the Wood Resource Quarterly (WRQ). 

The biggest decline in market share has been that of Russia, which has fallen from 36% to 18% in the past three years. The only other major change the past few years has been an increase in pine log shipments from Uruguay. These have increased from just a few thousand m3 in 2016 to almost 2.5 million m3 in 2018, making the country the fifth largest log supplier to China last year. 

The average log import price fell three percent from the 3Q/18 to the 4Q/18, mainly because of lower costs for logs originating from New Zealand and the US. The total average import price has gone up for three consecutive years. Although the prices have trended upward over the past few years, they are still lower than import prices in 2013 and 2014, when high-cost suppliers in the US and Canada had a larger market share. 

Another interesting development is that Japan, the sixth largest softwood log importer in the world, has almost tripled log exports to China over the past few years, from just over 300,000 m3 in 2014 to almost a million m3 in 2018. Other smaller log supplying countries that have increased shipments to China in 2018 include Poland, Chile, South Africa and Germany. ​
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Log imports to China reached another record high in 2018, with New Zealand supplying 44% of the volume, reports the WRQ

16/4/2019

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China is continuously exploring new sources of softwood logs around the world. Minor log exporters, such as Japan, Poland, Chile and South Africa all expanded their shipments to China in 2018, reports the WRQ. Of the major log supplying countries, only Russia and Canada reduced their exports to China, while New Zealand, the US and Uruguay all increased their shipments year-over-year.

Seattle, USA.
 China had another record year of softwood log imports in 2018, when over 40 million m3 of logs landed at Chinese ports. This was the third consecutive year of year-over-year- increases, with 2018 volumes being up 37% from 2015. Although import volumes fell slightly from the 3Q/18 to the 4Q/18, the December numbers were the second highest monthly imports on record.
 
Over the past five years, import volumes have declined from the key supplying regions of Russia and Canada, while they have increased from New Zealand and Australia. New Zealand continues to expand its market share, supplying 44% of the total import volume in the 4Q/18, up from 30% just three years earlier, according to the Wood Resource Quarterly (WRQ). The biggest decline in market share has been that of Russia, which has fallen from 36% to 18% in the past three years. The only other major change the past few years has been an increase in pine log shipments from Uruguay. These have increased from just a few thousand m3 in 2016 to almost 2.5 million m3 in 2018, making the country the fifth largest log supplier to China last year.
 
The average log import price fell three percent from the 3Q/18 to the 4Q/18, mainly because of lower costs for logs originating from New Zealand and the US. The total average import price has gone up for three consecutive years. Although the prices have trended upward over the past few years, they are still lower than import prices in 2013 and 2014, when high-cost suppliers in the US and Canada had a larger market share.
 
Another interesting development is that Japan, the sixth largest softwood log importer in the world, has almost tripled log exports to China over the past few years, from just over 300,000 m3 in 2014 to almost a million m3 in 2018. Other smaller log supplying countries that have increased shipments to China in 2018 include Poland, Chile, South Africa and Germany.


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    Author
    ​FRANK T DAVIS 

    A SURLY AND CYNICAL OLD CURMUDGEON WITH A JAUNDICED VIEW OF THE POLITICAL ELITE .

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