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Arbor Resources Blog Updates

​Chinese imports of softwood and hardwood wood products will be
significantly altered in 2022 if Russia’s log export ban is implemented
China is the world’s largest importer of softwood and hardwood logs, and for many decades,
Russia has been a significant log supplier for them. This relationship may change in 2022
if Russia implements their proposed ban on exports of softwood logs and valuable
hardwood logs, while also introducing export taxes on green lumber. All these policy
changes are designed to encourage increased domestic production of higher-valued forest
products.
The Russian parliament has not yet announced the final legislative proclamation, so it is
not clear if there will be a complete or phased-in ban, a significant export tax, or even the
possibility of a state-owned export monopoly. However, a signal has been sent to the
marketplace that Russia will no longer be a major supplier of softwood and hardwood logs.
One consequence of this decision is that Chinese wood manufacturers will need to explore
new long-term log supply regions.
In 2020, China imported almost 6.5 million m3 of logs from Russia, predominantly
softwood species. The trade was substantially less than in any year during the past two
decades. Nevertheless, Russia was still the largest supplier of hardwood logs to China in
2020 (more prominent than any other source of temperate or tropical logs) and the thirdlargest
supplier of softwood logs.
It is crucial to keep in mind that China has shifted from sourcing logs from Russia to
European suppliers the past few years as insect-infested timber in Central Europe has been
in temporary abundance. From 2018 to 2020, softwood log imports from Europe increased
from 1.3 million m3 to 12.3 million m3, while Russian-supplied logs fell from 7.8 million
m3 to 4.2 million m3. However, shipments from Europe are not sustainable long-term.
According to the just-released study by the consulting firms Wood Resources International
and O’Kelly Acumen (Russian Log Export Ban in 2022 - Implications for the Global
Forest Industry), China is expected to source more sawlogs from Oceania, Europe, and the
US short-term. Longer-term, the study anticipates that China is likely to shift further from
WRI Market Insights 2021
- a subscription service from Wood Resources International
Global Sawlog Markets
Wood Resources
International
importing logs to lumber, thus creating opportunities for lumber manufacturers, mainly in
Europe and Russia, to increase shipments to this growing market.
The excerpt above is from the just-released Focus Report “Russia Log Export Ban in 2022 –
Implications to the Global Forest Industry”, published by Wood Resources International LLC
and O’Kelly Acumen. For more information about the study or to inquire about purchasing the
60-page report in easy-to-read slide format, please contact either Hakan Ekstrom
(hakan@woodprices.com) or Glen O’Kelly (glen.okelly@okelly.se). A Table of Contents of the
report is available on our website. Click here!
Contact Information
Wood Resources International LLC
Hakan Ekstrom, Seattle, USA
info@WoodPrices.com

Researchers excited about new carbon dioxide sink

18/4/2018

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Algae-forestry, bioenergy mix could help make CO2 vanish from thin air - An unconventional mélange of algae, eucalyptus and bioenergy with carbon capture and storage appears to be a quirky ecological recipe. 

But, scientists from Cornell University, Duke University, and the University of Hawaii at Hilo have an idea that could use that recipe to help power and provide food protein to large regions of the world - and simultaneously remove carbon dioxide from Earth's atmosphere.


"Algae may be the key to unlocking an important negative-emissions technology to combat climate change," said Charles Greene, Cornell professor of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences and a co-author of new research published in Earth's Future, by the American Geophysical Union.


"Combining two technologies - bio-energy with carbon capture and storage, and microalgae production - may seem like an odd couple, but it could provide enough scientific synergy to help solve world hunger and at the same time reduce the level of greenhouse gases that are changing our climate system," Greene said.

Based on an idea first conceptualised by co-author Ian Archibald of Cinglas Ltd., Chester, England, the scientists call the new integrated system ABECCS, or algae bioenergy with carbon capture and storage. 

The system can act as a carbon dioxide sink while also generating food and electricity. For example, a 7,000-acre ABECCS facility can yield as much protein as soybeans produced on the same land footprint, while simultaneously generating 17 million kilowatt hours of electricity and sequestering 30,000 tons of carbon dioxide per year.

​
Provided by: Cornell University
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China's changing supply chain

6/4/2018

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The log and lumber supply chain to China and Chinese wood markets overall are entering a whole new phase. This is especially evidenced by the dramatic reduction in China’s domestic timber harvest and the Chinese government’s crackdown on polluting mills in a mandated policy to improve air and water quality. What this means is that traditional Chinese industries are being closed or curtailed, slowing demand for logs and expanding the demand for lumber. In response, China’s supply chain is morphing and adapting in a variety of ways to meet the country’s growing demand for wood products. 

It appears the Chinese government has a long-term strategy to ensure that the country’s wood demand continues to be met. Of particular note is the One Belt/One Road initiative, aimed at developing extensive transportation links to key supplying countries around the world. By developing such a supply chain, China is better able to access those countries’ “cheap” raw materials (i.e., inexpensive relative to the high levels to which global log and wood products prices are headed). 

The strategy of the Chinese government may be a simple one: delay harvesting its own timber in favour of expanding domestic plantations. The goal would be to increase its own internal timber supply for use later when it is truly needed (and by which time global supply will have become even more expensive). In short, China is opting to pay global market prices now to purchase its raw materials, transporting its purchases home via its increasingly well-developed and efficient supply chain to the rest of the world. In future, as these raw materials become scarce and/or more expensive, the country will have placed itself in a strong position to make the switch to utilizing its domestic plantations and other internal resources. 

With these goals in mind, Chinese state-owned companies appear to be focused on developing their global supply chain as a means to become highly positioned in offshore countries in the short-term and for the future. Therefore, despite paying higher open-market raw material prices, this highly strategic plan will lead to more efficient logistics. It will also encourage increased offshore production for export to China. 

Also, with this objective in mind, further strategic investments are likely to be made in overseas timberlands and some primary processing plants to supply China via the One Belt/One Road initiative. At the same time, China’s pace and volume of purchases, which will encompass a wide variety of raw materials, will be strategically timed around pricing developments, i.e., the Chinese government will invest what it needs, when it best serves the country, in order to meet its aggressive long-term supply objectives. 

With returns on investment considered less important than having a diversified and accessible forest resource in the future, most of China’s domestic forest plantations feature a mix of eucalyptus, poplar, Chinese fir and masson pine. It will take 20 years to grow coniferous plantations, so any future incremental supplies from these sources will not be ready until 2035 (excluding any new coniferous plantations already established), dictating a need for rising volumes of imported softwood logs and lumber for an indefinite period of time. 

Of further interest are the considerable developments taking place at the major land ports at China’s northern border with Russia. Team members from both FEA Canada and FEA USA have visited these regions as part of the field investigations for a new, upcoming multi-client report — China’s Import Demand for Softwood Logs and Lumber to 2022 (subtitled The Changing Supply Chain in China with a Focus on Russia’s Industry/Export Potential). It has become clear that things are very dynamic in both northern China and Russia. 

First, it has been reported that Chinese banks have up to RMB300 billion (US$50 billion) available to spend on forestry and mill investments in Russia (RMB20 billion, equivalent to US$3 billion, have been spent thus far). Second, there are more block trains being organized from Russian and/or northern Chinese land ports to transport lumber to strategic destinations within China. Third, log and lumber production in Russia (by both Russian and Chinese sawmills) is expanding. 

Other key dynamic include Chinese companies increasing their access to Russian timber by paying for open-market logs (i.e., they can pay more because their sawmilling costs are lower than those of many Russian mills), and Chinese sawmills in Russia increasing their output and sending green lumber to processing plants in northern China — thereby bypassing the Russian log export tax — for extensive value-added processing. These developments have enabled a wider reach of Russian higher-valued lumber or components that can be shipped further in China and are already beginning to cause some displacement of European and radiata furniture grades in southeastern China (with more expected). 

Source: Russ Taylor, Managing Director and Jane Guo, China Office Manager, FEA Holdings – Canada Inc
​
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Shipping rates expected to remain low despite mergers and acquisitions

3/4/2018

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Import/Export Wood Purchasing News (February/March 2018 issue) provided an overview of major developments in shipping in 2017 and how they may affect prices and container trade in 2018.
The number of large shipping lines has continually decreased through acquisitions and mergers. In 2017 Maersk acquired Hamburg-Süd. Cosco bought OOCL after absorbing China Shipping in 2016. The three Japanese carriers KLINE, NYK and MOL have announced they will merge to become ONE (Ocean Network Express). In the end three major alliances will represent approximately 85% of the global container trade in 2018.
At the same time ocean freight rates have been at record low levels. Rates are not expected to increase much in 2018, despite the shipping line mergers. This is in part because carriers are ordering larger vessels, which can hold up to 4,000 containers more than the ships they will replace. Without an increase in cargo, the larger capacity will help depress freight rates.

Source: ITTO/Fordaq
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    Author
    ​FRANK T DAVIS 

    A SURLY AND CYNICAL OLD CURMUDGEON WITH A JAUNDICED VIEW OF THE POLITICAL ELITE .

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