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Arbor Resources Blog Updates

​Chinese imports of softwood and hardwood wood products will be
significantly altered in 2022 if Russia’s log export ban is implemented
China is the world’s largest importer of softwood and hardwood logs, and for many decades,
Russia has been a significant log supplier for them. This relationship may change in 2022
if Russia implements their proposed ban on exports of softwood logs and valuable
hardwood logs, while also introducing export taxes on green lumber. All these policy
changes are designed to encourage increased domestic production of higher-valued forest
products.
The Russian parliament has not yet announced the final legislative proclamation, so it is
not clear if there will be a complete or phased-in ban, a significant export tax, or even the
possibility of a state-owned export monopoly. However, a signal has been sent to the
marketplace that Russia will no longer be a major supplier of softwood and hardwood logs.
One consequence of this decision is that Chinese wood manufacturers will need to explore
new long-term log supply regions.
In 2020, China imported almost 6.5 million m3 of logs from Russia, predominantly
softwood species. The trade was substantially less than in any year during the past two
decades. Nevertheless, Russia was still the largest supplier of hardwood logs to China in
2020 (more prominent than any other source of temperate or tropical logs) and the thirdlargest
supplier of softwood logs.
It is crucial to keep in mind that China has shifted from sourcing logs from Russia to
European suppliers the past few years as insect-infested timber in Central Europe has been
in temporary abundance. From 2018 to 2020, softwood log imports from Europe increased
from 1.3 million m3 to 12.3 million m3, while Russian-supplied logs fell from 7.8 million
m3 to 4.2 million m3. However, shipments from Europe are not sustainable long-term.
According to the just-released study by the consulting firms Wood Resources International
and O’Kelly Acumen (Russian Log Export Ban in 2022 - Implications for the Global
Forest Industry), China is expected to source more sawlogs from Oceania, Europe, and the
US short-term. Longer-term, the study anticipates that China is likely to shift further from
WRI Market Insights 2021
- a subscription service from Wood Resources International
Global Sawlog Markets
Wood Resources
International
importing logs to lumber, thus creating opportunities for lumber manufacturers, mainly in
Europe and Russia, to increase shipments to this growing market.
The excerpt above is from the just-released Focus Report “Russia Log Export Ban in 2022 –
Implications to the Global Forest Industry”, published by Wood Resources International LLC
and O’Kelly Acumen. For more information about the study or to inquire about purchasing the
60-page report in easy-to-read slide format, please contact either Hakan Ekstrom
(hakan@woodprices.com) or Glen O’Kelly (glen.okelly@okelly.se). A Table of Contents of the
report is available on our website. Click here!
Contact Information
Wood Resources International LLC
Hakan Ekstrom, Seattle, USA
info@WoodPrices.com

Another new record for log exports

30/5/2018

1 Comment

 
NZ log exports hit new monthly record in March - Further strength forecast BusinessDesk) - New Zealand exported a record volume of softwood logs in March, as shipments to most major markets increased, with further strength forecast through the rest of the year, according to AgriHQ, NZX's agricultural analysis business. 

The country shipped a record 1.975 million cubic metres of softwood logs overseas in March, up 22 percent from both the February level and from March last year, AgriHQ said in its latest monthly forestry market report. That beat the previous monthly record set in October last year and puts first quarter log exports 22 percent above last year's levels. 

All major destinations for New Zealand logs were up in March, except Japan due to timing issues, although Indian shipments had been volatile as regulators clamp down on the Indian banking system and South Korea was subdued due to a sluggish economy, the report said. 

"A stellar March for exports of NZ softwood logs broke previous records," AgriHQ analyst Reece Brick said under a section of the report titled 'Only direction upwards'. "Expectations are for the strength in this market to continue throughout 2018, with demand expected to pick up from India in the second half of the year." 

The latest gains come after New Zealand shipped a record 18.8 million cubic metres of softwood logs overseas last year, up 18 percent on 2016, with exports to China jumping 29 percent and accounting for three-quarters of the total. AgriHQ said exports to China continued to grow in March, up 20 percent on year-earlier levels and marking 14 straight months of gains. He noted China's log imports in March were "incredibly strong" this year as Chinese New Year celebrations, which typically lead to a slowdown, occurred in February. 

"Any worries around a post-Chinese New Year log slump have been put to bed," Brick said. "In fact the past few weeks have been among the most encouraging in at least the past twelve months, arguably longer." 

Log offtake levels at Chinese ports have rushed above previous record rates, with periods where more than 100,000 cubic metres a day has come off, with the average rate sitting around 90,000-95,000 cubic metres a day, he said. That has pulled port-level inventories down to 3.8-4.2 million cubic metres and it’s very likely these figures will be even lower by this time next month, he said. 

The combination of higher in-market pricing and the falling value of the New Zealand dollar against the greenback had pushed log export returns further towards record territory, although rising shipping rates had held back values a little, Brick said. 

The average price for New Zealand A-grade export logs over the past month had lifted to US$144/JAS from US$143/JAS, and was ahead of US$130/JAS a year ago, and US$113/JAS two years ago, according to AgriHQ's monthly survey of exporters, forest owners and saw millers. 

Shipping rates were firmer through April and there were mixed views on where shipping rates will track with some saying elevated oil prices pointed towards a lift while others believed there was enough spare shipping capacity across the globe to keep a lid on rates in the medium term, Brick said. 

In the domestic market, the price for S1 logs lifted to $134 a tonne from $133 a tonne last month, according to AgriHQ's survey. 

"As a whole, it is still one of the strongest periods ever to be a log trader," Brick said. "Export markets continue to keep domestic mills on their toes, making them pay near to what can be achieved overseas or simply miss out on supplies." 
1 Comment
Scarlett H link
24/11/2020 16:12:22

Nice shhare

Reply



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    Author
    ​FRANK T DAVIS 

    A SURLY AND CYNICAL OLD CURMUDGEON WITH A JAUNDICED VIEW OF THE POLITICAL ELITE .

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