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Arbor Resources Blog Updates

​Chinese imports of softwood and hardwood wood products will be
significantly altered in 2022 if Russia’s log export ban is implemented
China is the world’s largest importer of softwood and hardwood logs, and for many decades,
Russia has been a significant log supplier for them. This relationship may change in 2022
if Russia implements their proposed ban on exports of softwood logs and valuable
hardwood logs, while also introducing export taxes on green lumber. All these policy
changes are designed to encourage increased domestic production of higher-valued forest
products.
The Russian parliament has not yet announced the final legislative proclamation, so it is
not clear if there will be a complete or phased-in ban, a significant export tax, or even the
possibility of a state-owned export monopoly. However, a signal has been sent to the
marketplace that Russia will no longer be a major supplier of softwood and hardwood logs.
One consequence of this decision is that Chinese wood manufacturers will need to explore
new long-term log supply regions.
In 2020, China imported almost 6.5 million m3 of logs from Russia, predominantly
softwood species. The trade was substantially less than in any year during the past two
decades. Nevertheless, Russia was still the largest supplier of hardwood logs to China in
2020 (more prominent than any other source of temperate or tropical logs) and the thirdlargest
supplier of softwood logs.
It is crucial to keep in mind that China has shifted from sourcing logs from Russia to
European suppliers the past few years as insect-infested timber in Central Europe has been
in temporary abundance. From 2018 to 2020, softwood log imports from Europe increased
from 1.3 million m3 to 12.3 million m3, while Russian-supplied logs fell from 7.8 million
m3 to 4.2 million m3. However, shipments from Europe are not sustainable long-term.
According to the just-released study by the consulting firms Wood Resources International
and O’Kelly Acumen (Russian Log Export Ban in 2022 - Implications for the Global
Forest Industry), China is expected to source more sawlogs from Oceania, Europe, and the
US short-term. Longer-term, the study anticipates that China is likely to shift further from
WRI Market Insights 2021
- a subscription service from Wood Resources International
Global Sawlog Markets
Wood Resources
International
importing logs to lumber, thus creating opportunities for lumber manufacturers, mainly in
Europe and Russia, to increase shipments to this growing market.
The excerpt above is from the just-released Focus Report “Russia Log Export Ban in 2022 –
Implications to the Global Forest Industry”, published by Wood Resources International LLC
and O’Kelly Acumen. For more information about the study or to inquire about purchasing the
60-page report in easy-to-read slide format, please contact either Hakan Ekstrom
(hakan@woodprices.com) or Glen O’Kelly (glen.okelly@okelly.se). A Table of Contents of the
report is available on our website. Click here!
Contact Information
Wood Resources International LLC
Hakan Ekstrom, Seattle, USA
info@WoodPrices.com

2018 NZ log exports high

4/5/2018

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New Zealand's export log market has picked up following a slowdown ahead of the Chinese New Year period. Traders are optimistic about the outlook for the year ahead, according to the latest AgriHQ forestry market report.

The country's log export volumes in February were 1.6 percent ahead of the three- month average and 18 percent up on the same time last year as weaker exports to India and South Korea were offset by strong exports to Japan and China, the report said. Lumber exports also picked up, with February export volumes up 25 percent on the same time last year, driven by strength in China and the US.

Overall, the log trade into China, New Zealand's largest log market, weakened in February with imports down 32 percent on the three-month average and 14 percent below the same time last year because of disruption due to Chinese New Year celebrations, AgriHQ said. A similar pattern occurred for lumber imports, down 18 percent on the same time last year and 34 percent below the three-month average. 

Still, New Zealand's softwood log exports have picked back up following a slowing of the market prior to the Chinese New Year, AgriHQ analyst Reece Brick said in his April report under the heading '2018 log exports off to a good start'.

"Import levels witnessed in February hold very little credence for coming months. It is forecast for log and lumber inputs to remain strong or to increase further on past years," Brick said. "If the past month is any indication then 2018 should be another good year for the export log trade. Any post-Chinese New Year jitters have essentially disappeared as the port-level log offtake has risen to the level required to keep the market sturdy."

Brick noted buyers in China are becoming more selective about their logs based on the fairly large volume of logs still on port, with the AgriHQ Log Price Survey showing lower value logs held at levels near to a month ago while better quality logs trended upwards. 

He said higher shipping rates and a higher local currency were weighing on the export log market through March and early April, although he noted these appeared to be short-term issues and overall the export log market remains in a "healthy position". 

"Each of the main export markets are still showing positive levels of interest which has log traders optimistic that the highs of the past 12 months or so can be repeated again throughout 2018." Brick said competition with the export log market was still driving contract negotiations in New Zealand's domestic market and holding the market solid across the board.

"Mills hoping for a reduction in log prices look like they’ll be out of luck for at least the next few months," he said. "Domestic log demand remains solid, more so on pruned logs than unpruned, while overseas markets are continuing to absorb any product coming out of NZ with relative ease.
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    Author
    ​FRANK T DAVIS 

    A SURLY AND CYNICAL OLD CURMUDGEON WITH A JAUNDICED VIEW OF THE POLITICAL ELITE .

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