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Arbor Resources Blog Updates

​Chinese imports of softwood and hardwood wood products will be
significantly altered in 2022 if Russia’s log export ban is implemented
China is the world’s largest importer of softwood and hardwood logs, and for many decades,
Russia has been a significant log supplier for them. This relationship may change in 2022
if Russia implements their proposed ban on exports of softwood logs and valuable
hardwood logs, while also introducing export taxes on green lumber. All these policy
changes are designed to encourage increased domestic production of higher-valued forest
products.
The Russian parliament has not yet announced the final legislative proclamation, so it is
not clear if there will be a complete or phased-in ban, a significant export tax, or even the
possibility of a state-owned export monopoly. However, a signal has been sent to the
marketplace that Russia will no longer be a major supplier of softwood and hardwood logs.
One consequence of this decision is that Chinese wood manufacturers will need to explore
new long-term log supply regions.
In 2020, China imported almost 6.5 million m3 of logs from Russia, predominantly
softwood species. The trade was substantially less than in any year during the past two
decades. Nevertheless, Russia was still the largest supplier of hardwood logs to China in
2020 (more prominent than any other source of temperate or tropical logs) and the thirdlargest
supplier of softwood logs.
It is crucial to keep in mind that China has shifted from sourcing logs from Russia to
European suppliers the past few years as insect-infested timber in Central Europe has been
in temporary abundance. From 2018 to 2020, softwood log imports from Europe increased
from 1.3 million m3 to 12.3 million m3, while Russian-supplied logs fell from 7.8 million
m3 to 4.2 million m3. However, shipments from Europe are not sustainable long-term.
According to the just-released study by the consulting firms Wood Resources International
and O’Kelly Acumen (Russian Log Export Ban in 2022 - Implications for the Global
Forest Industry), China is expected to source more sawlogs from Oceania, Europe, and the
US short-term. Longer-term, the study anticipates that China is likely to shift further from
WRI Market Insights 2021
- a subscription service from Wood Resources International
Global Sawlog Markets
Wood Resources
International
importing logs to lumber, thus creating opportunities for lumber manufacturers, mainly in
Europe and Russia, to increase shipments to this growing market.
The excerpt above is from the just-released Focus Report “Russia Log Export Ban in 2022 –
Implications to the Global Forest Industry”, published by Wood Resources International LLC
and O’Kelly Acumen. For more information about the study or to inquire about purchasing the
60-page report in easy-to-read slide format, please contact either Hakan Ekstrom
(hakan@woodprices.com) or Glen O’Kelly (glen.okelly@okelly.se). A Table of Contents of the
report is available on our website. Click here!
Contact Information
Wood Resources International LLC
Hakan Ekstrom, Seattle, USA
info@WoodPrices.com

2016 set to be New Zealand's hottest year on record

14/12/2016

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Niwa principal scientist for climate Brett Mullan said that, while we continue to pump greenhouse gases into the atmosphere, we will continue to break records.
Mullan said the warmer conditions could be bad news for the horticulture industry, aiding the spread of crop diseases and pests.
But Dairy NZ spokesman Andrew Reid said a hot year was not necessarily a bad thing for dairy farmers, provided it didn't turn into a drought.
"Typically hot conditions are a good thing, because it means good pasture if you have moisture in the soil. If it turns into dry conditions then farmers need to ensure they have a plan in place."
This year it had been unusually wet weather that was affecting production, he said.
New Zealand's average temperature for 2016 is currently sitting at 0.94 degrees Celsius above the 1981-2010 average.
Christchurch was less of a departure from the norm, but still had its hottest year since 1998.
At Niwa's Baring Head Clean Air Station, near Wellington, the levels of carbon dioxide – the primary greenhouse gas contributing to atmospheric warming – also broke records, passing the 400 parts per million (ppm) threshold in June.
Globally, the World Meteorological Organisation said 2016 was set to be the hottest year by a significant margin, with temperatures 1.2C above pre-industrial times.
If confirmed by the year's end, it would mark the third record year in succession.
Temperatures for the rest of the year would have to drop markedly, to more than 1C below normal for the next three weeks, to avoid the record being set.
Mullan said Kiwis would not bear the brunt of the warming, which would fall heaviest on areas that were already very hot, including India and the Middle East.
The first six months of this year were exceptionally warm, which Mullan said was a consequence of the long-term regional warming trend caused by greenhouse gases and local natural variability.
"Natural variability acts like a tailwind or headwind, pushing local temperatures either above or below the long-term trend. In 2016, sea surface temperatures in the Tasman were exceptionally warm and there was more northerly flow than usual over New Zealand, pushing local temperatures above the trend."
National measurements date back to 1909. During this century, only four years have recorded colder-than-average temperatures: 2004, 2006, 2009, and 2012.
This year, August was the only month that dipped below normal.
Mullan said he expected to see the record for the hottest year beaten repeatedly in coming years.
"I don't expect to ever again set a record low temperature. Those have come and gone."
 - Stuff
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    Author
    ​FRANK T DAVIS 

    A SURLY AND CYNICAL OLD CURMUDGEON WITH A JAUNDICED VIEW OF THE POLITICAL ELITE .

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